No Fireworks in Stock Market on this Diwali? Why So?
Commentary on Market,How i see it and what it hold for the future.
Diwali Greetings to you all lovely people.
Hope you are having good mithais rather than watching market corrects.
In this special Diwali edition, we will be discussing -
Markets Outlook
Sectors Outlook
World Markets Outlook
Things affected the market so far
Let’s Kickin -
From touching the new high in October the main indices like SENSEX, NIFTY & BANKNIFTY all went into profit booking and started to look weak.
It was ok till the NIFTY held 18000 level but as of today, NIFTY is facing strong resistance at that level and every attempt to claim 18000 is getting sold. The most crucial factor is so far FIIs have been selling a lot. They have sold 25000+ crore of equity last month in October and there’s no buying interest from them so far.
On the weekly chart, the NIFTY has touched the lower trend line. A weak RSI also makes me a little worried.
On the daily chart, NIFTY looks very bearish, made a bearish engulfing candle as well. Also, 18000 have become an important level I will long only above that.
Also, every Q2 result performance is getting sold be it ASIAN PAINTS, IT stocks, FMCG stocks you name it.
Another reason to worry is inflation commentary by some leading companies. Also, there is a lot of noise in world markets about the same.
Coming to BANKNIFTY, mostly all results were good. ICICI BANK posted really good growth numbers. The same thing happened with other banks as well. Today also SBIN posted good numbers. But the same thing is happening everything is getting sold on the news. 40000 which was a support earlier has now become resistance.
NIFTY PVT BANK index has been underperforming while the NIFTY PSU BANK index has been overperforming. BANKS like BANKBARODA, CANARA BANK, FEDERAL BANK and others have shown good strength.
BANKNIFTY has turned into very bearish look at that candle big bearish engulfing one. The next level to watch is 39000 if it breaks we are definitely seeing 38400 levels.
Positive only above 40000.
All the NIFTY BANK constituents have performed badly except showing individual strength on their Q2 results but that was not enough for BANKNIFTY.
Same happening with NIFTY constituents like RELIANCE, HDFC LTD, NIFTY IT like INFY & TCS also some up & down from NIFTY METAL or be it NIFTY FMCG and NIFTY PHARMA’s move was not enough to move and hold NIFTY up.
A complete lack of collective efforts from the constituents makes me worried on NIFTY. Remember I am not advocating a downfall here in the coming days am just sharing what I am seeing. I hold the right to be wrong here and we can see another fresh up move led by who? It’s difficult to say as of today.
Coming to WORLD MARKET’s The US Markets look the same no decisive move one day 100 points up and the other day 100 points down. Same with NASDAQ and EUROPEAN MARKET. Meanwhile, ASIAN Indices also looks somewhat weak.
Same worries here as well stock-specific runs going on. But no broader market runs.
Inflation has been one of the important factors which I understood so far in this sell. Also maybe we could have made another short-term high. The volatility and uncertainty have certainly increased random moves are coming in and hitting both buyers and sellers.
Also, IPO season is back. So maybe the liquidity moves into the primary market for now. Many big IPO are lined up. I have already published an overview and my remarks on some of them in my previous newsletters do check it out.
Talking about tommorow’s MAHURAT TRADING I have some names which I’ll be looking to buy for long-term investment purposes.
HDFC LIFE
LAURUS LABS
SRF
HINDUNILIVER
DLF
KOLTE PATIL
POLYCAB
KEI
BIRLA CORP
MINDA IND
TVS MOTORS
These are stocks I feel should do great in the future. Remember do not buy them in bulk at once try to do SIP or buy in tranches. Also, I am not SEBI registered I may or may not hold positions in these stocks.
So that’s it guys, feel free to share your names and picks for coming years in the comment sections below.
See you in the next one!
Be safe have great food spend time with family friends and loved ones bajaar ko Monday ko dekh lenge jada tension nai leneka.
Enjoy Responsibly!
Wishing you all a very happy and prosperous Diwali!
Adios!